CEMA at the Forefront of COVID-19 Response
CEMA has been at the forefront of COVID-19 research in Kenya and across Africa, leveraging advanced epidemiological modeling and data analytics to support public health responses. Our work focuses on understanding the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and informing evidence-based interventions.
The COVID-19 Response
One day after COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, Kenya reported its first case. Like many countries around the world, Kenya needed answers about how to slow the spread of the disease. But with limited resources and fragmented data systems at home, the government was heavily reliant on global data of varying quality and projections that weren't always relevant to Kenya.
Three Kenyans quickly recognized this gap and teamed up to see how they could help. Prof. Thumbi Mwangi , an infectious disease epidemiologist and trained veterinarian, brought research and modeling expertise. He joined fellow University of Nairobi professor Dr. Loice Ombajo , who also serves as an infectious disease doctor at Kenya's largest referral hospital, Kenyatta National Hospital. Many Kenyans came to know her as a voice of reason on the news during the pandemic's earliest days. Rounding out the trio was Dr. Shikoh Gitau, a self-professed "math geek," who has devoted her life to creating opportunities through technology, recently launching her own company, Qhala, to catalyze Africa's digital future.
Using local data and mathematical modeling, they provided clear, useful disease projections and became one of the government's most trusted resources. What began as an informal partnership between three civic-minded Kenyans is now an important emerging resource for Kenya and the continent: the Center for Epidemiological Modeling and Analysis at the University of Nairobi, or CEMA.
"There was a request to model how long it would take to get to the first 1,000 cases or the first 10,000 cases. So, I got hold of one of my PhD students, and we started working out a simple model."
- Prof. Thumbi Mwangi, Co-founder, CEMA
CEMA is growing new talent in the field and changing the way governments can use local health data well beyond the COVID crisis, building capacity across Africa to tackle future health challenges with locally-generated, evidence-based solutions.
Data-Driven Modeling
We gathered and analyzed local health data, population demographics, and mobility patterns to build Kenya-specific epidemiological models that accurately reflected local conditions.
Policy Advisory Role
CEMA provided daily briefings to government officials, translating complex data into actionable policy recommendations that directly influenced Kenya's COVID-19 response measures.
Evidence-Based Interventions
Our models evaluated different intervention scenarios, helping determine optimal timing for lockdowns, school closures, and reopening strategies based on transmission risks and healthcare capacity.
Continuous Monitoring
We provided ongoing surveillance and updated projections as new data became available, ensuring that policy decisions remained current and responsive to changing conditions.
Our Approach & Impact
Rapid Response Formation
Within days of Kenya's first COVID-19 case, CEMA founders mobilized to create locally-relevant disease models using available data sources, filling a critical gap in the national response.
Voices from the Frontline
Hear from the team members and partners who made CEMA's COVID-19 response possible.
"When COVID-19 came, everybody was panicked. We came together and said: let's do this. Let's see what we can do to support our country's response to COVID-19. Our job is to give information in a way that could be easily broken down for people to consume."
"Together, we had the appropriate ingredients to respond to a pandemic. We're building a pipeline of data scientists that can have an impact. We have enough talent on the continent - it's not just talent, it's also the initiative and willingness to step up."
"The moment I learnt about CEMA, I said: 'Oh, this is the solution we've all been waiting for.' We've always had health on one side, and data on another. But when we bring them together, policy decisions can be informed by actual evidence. The impact is life-changing."
"CEMA has done a great job in helping the ministry of health craft interventions, especially the advisories, based on locally-generated data. In the early phase of the pandemic, we relied on data from China and WHO, but we could not directly infer that whatever was happening in China would happen in Kenya."
Improving Africa's Health through Data.
CEMA's COVID-19 response was just the beginning. We continue to train the next generation of African data scientists and epidemiologists to tackle the continent's health challenges.